4A Gareth Avenue, Narooma NSW 2546

01Overview & Snapshot

02Five-Year Trajectory — Narooma Houses

The shape tells the story: a sharp COVID-era boom (Jun 2020 → mid-2022, roughly +72%), a peak-to-trough correction of about 15% into a cycle low around mid-2025, then a modest recovery over the last 12 months. Rent has climbed steadily throughout — the more reliable performer.

03Growth & Yield

04Five-Year Price Projection

Projected values from the $900,000 contract price. Scenarios are model-based extrapolations of HTAG history — not forecasts or valuations.

The pure 5-year CAGR understates likely forward growth because it is anchored to the 2022 peak. With the market appearing to have bottomed around mid-2025 and turned upward (+2.35% over the last year), a central case of roughly $1.0M–$1.1M over five years is the most defensible read.

05Comparable Sales & Current Listings

Houses (3–5 bed) sold within ~3 km over the last six months (HTAG), plus current comparable asking-price listings from public portals. Sold evidence is the strongest test of the $900,000 contract.

All seven sales now range $815k–$1.22M, averaging ~$1.00M (median $990k). The closest peer on land size — 5 Collins Crescent (4·2·1, 556 m²) — sold for $1,187,000, and 1 Riley Street (4·3·2, $995k) and 11 The Loop (3·2·2, $980k) also cleared near $1M; smaller or older stock (26 Cole $830k, 41 Barker $815k) anchors the floor. At $900,000 on 460 m², the contract sits below recent sold evidence and well above the HTAG AVM of $765,939 — reinforcing that the AVM is conservative and the contract is well supported. A lender valuation remains the deciding number.

The subject is itself currently listed at $895,000 (4A Gareth Avenue, 4·2·2, 460 m², Whale Coast Realty, listing 17023639, inspection Sat 4 Jul) — the $900,000 contract sits marginally above the current asking. Comparable 3–4 bed houses are asking $775k–$990k; view.com.au puts the median Narooma house sale price at $698,000 (all sizes). Portal figures are asking prices, not sales, and per-listing days-on-market should be confirmed on the portal — HTAG carries no live for-sale feed, so these are sourced from view.com.au as at 1 July 2026.

06Short-Stay (Airbnb) Revenue Scenario

Modelled from AirROI Narooma market data (trailing 12 months, Jun 2025 – May 2026, refreshed 2 July 2026 — all figures AUD) and comparable 4-bedroom listings. AirROI's address-level estimate for a 4-bed / 2-bath / 6-guest home at this location is ~$63,000 gross a year at a $387 ADR and 45% occupancy (p25 ~$37k · p75 ~$78k · p90 ~$105k). The market-wide all-listing average of ~$21,200 understates an actively-let home: ~38% of Narooma's 183 tracked listings were open fewer than 181 days over the year (availability averages ~195 days), so owner-blocked holiday houses drag the average down — listings that actually earned averaged ~$34,000. Demand is highly seasonal — peaking in January, softest in May — with an average stay of ~4.6 nights.

Net figures assume short-stay operating costs of ~40–48% of gross — materially heavier than a long-term lease. About 37% of Narooma listings are professionally managed (15–20% management fee); cleaning fees average ~$345 per turnover (median $378); add platform fees, higher utilities/wifi, short-stay insurance, linen/consumables and faster wear. A top-decile operator (p90) can gross ~$105,000, but that assumes 69%+ occupancy with premium presentation. A one-off furnishing fit-out of ~$30–50k for a 4-bed is not included above.

07Rates, Revenue & Seasonality

Market-wide AirROI benchmarks for all Narooma listings (TTM Jun 2025 – May 2026, AUD). Headline averages: $377 ADR, 33.9% occupancy, $127 RevPAR; average booking lead time ~79 days. Listings that earned revenue averaged ~$34,000 for the year (median ~$27,600); across all 183 tracked listings (including owner-blocked homes) the average was ~$21,200. Performance splits widely by tier and by season.

Market-average ADR is $377; a well-run 4-bedroom targets the upper tiers — Narooma's top 4-bed comps achieved $525 and $734 a night. The green bar marks the Top-25% band ($456), the realistic target for a quality-managed listing.

Revenue swings hard with the calendar. The single strongest month (January) reaches ~$6,401 at 51% occupancy; the weakest (May) drops to ~$2,490 at 22%. These are market-wide averages across all listings — an actively-managed 4-bed runs materially higher in peak, around ~65% occupancy in January at a 45% annual average (modelled in the section 09 calculator). Building a cash buffer from the peak months to carry the off-season is essential.

The spread between top and bottom performers is enormous — a ~5× revenue gap driven by presentation, pricing strategy and availability. RevPAR (rate × realised occupancy) is the cleanest single efficiency measure: the market median is $103, top-quartile is $175+. (Tier annual figures compound monthly percentiles, so treat them as indicative bands, not per-listing forecasts.)

08Supply, Hosts & Market

Narooma is a boutique market — ~113 currently active listings (183 tracked over the year, ~104 active in any given month), ~97% entire homes, with supply up roughly 8% year-on-year (103 → 111 monthly actives). By property type it skews to apartments/units (48%) with houses at ~33% plus cottages, cabins and guesthouses; by size, 2-bed (41%) and 3-bed (27%) dominate, with 41% offering 3+ bedrooms and 14% at 4+ bedrooms. About 37% of listings are professionally managed.

The top listings show two routes to strong revenue: high ADR with moderate occupancy (12 Bluewater at $734 × 36%), or lower ADR with very high occupancy (Farm Stay Cottage at $271 × 95%). Both clear ~$98k+, and the best 4-beds clear $120k–$144k.

One operator — Whale Coast — dominates, running 71 of the 183 tracked listings at a $413 ADR but only ~15% occupancy. The remainder is a long tail of individual owner-hosts, several rating 4.9+ with far stronger occupancy. A new entrant competes mainly on presentation and pricing against a single professional incumbent whose portfolio under-fills.

*Average revenue per active listing-month. Narooma sits below the Jervis Bay / Shoalhaven markets (the Shoalhaven LGA tracks ~1,238 listings in total) — and the gap is now clearly rate, not just availability: occupancy is broadly in line with the neighbours, but Narooma's $377 ADR is 30–55% below Huskisson, Vincentia, Hyams Beach and Callala Beach. Owner-blocked holiday homes still drag the blended average further. An actively-let 4-bed (modelled at ~$63k in section 06) would sit well above Narooma's blended market average.

09Airbnb Revenue Calculator

Interactive model — adjust occupancy and nightly rate to test returns for this property. Benchmarks come from AirROI's address-level estimate for a 4-bedroom at this location (refreshed 2 July 2026, AUD), so they sit above the market-wide averages in sections 07–08 (which include all sizes and many owner-blocked homes). Seasonality follows AirROI's monthly revenue distribution for this address — January runs ≈ 65% at the default 45% annual average. The loan defaults to 100% borrowing against the $900k contract (no down payment — e.g. equity-secured or guarantor-supported) at 6.5% p.a. over 30 years; zero the loan amount for a cash-purchase view. The Target Revenue card works backwards from an acceptable monthly shortfall (default $1,000/mo out-of-pocket) to the Airbnb revenue the property must earn, benchmarked against AirROI's 4-bed percentiles for this address.

The loan repayment, annual profit and cash-on-cash now update live from the loan inputs (principal & interest). The model remains indicative — for a finance decision use section 06's net figures and the credit team's serviceability assessment; short-stay income is typically discounted or excluded for servicing.

10Short-Stay vs Long-Term & Regulation

The read: on the refreshed AUD figures, a well-managed short-stay operation nets ~$33–38k — roughly $7–12k ahead of a standard lease (~$26k) — but only if it actually achieves ~45% occupancy at a ~$387 rate, and after far more work, seasonal cashflow swings and a $30–50k fit-out. A lightly-run listing (~$37k gross, ~$19–22k net) underperforms the lease. The practical breakeven against a long-term lease sits around ~40% occupancy at a $350–390 ADR; top-quartile execution (57%+ occupancy) lifts net past ~$41k.

11Data Confidence & Watch-Points

• HTAG confidence rating for Narooma houses is Medium — the suburb turns over only ~60 house sales a year, so metrics are sensitive to a handful of transactions.
• The AVM ($765,939) is a modelled estimate, not a physical inspection; the ~15% gap to contract warrants a formal valuation before finance is locked.
• Only one sale is on record for the property ($335,000 in 2011), so there is no recent paired-sale evidence for this specific dwelling.
• Coastal / lifestyle markets like Narooma carry higher amplitude through cycles — strong on the way up, more exposed on the way down — relative to metro benchmarks.
• Currency note: all AirROI short-stay figures in this brief are now in AUD (refreshed direct from the AirROI API on 2 July 2026). An earlier draft quoted AirROI dashboard figures in USD, which understated the dollar numbers by ~35% — the underlying occupancy percentages were unchanged.
• Short-stay figures are market-derived estimates for a 4-bed, not a projection for this specific home — Narooma is a small STR market (~113 active listings; 183 tracked across the year) and returns hinge on management quality, fit-out and peak-season capture. AirROI's address-level estimate (~$63k) assumes an actively-let, well-presented listing.
• Short-stay income is typically assessed conservatively (or excluded) by the credit team for serviceability; a signed long-term lease or agent rental appraisal is the stronger evidence for a finance submission.