57 Kianga Parade, Kianga NSW 2546

01Overview & Snapshot

02Five-Year Trajectory — Narooma Houses (Proxy Market)

Kianga records too few sales for its own suburb-level series, so adjoining Narooma (same 2546 postcode, ~3 km south) is used as the proxy market throughout sections 02–03. The shape tells the story: a sharp COVID-era boom (Jun 2020 → mid-2022, roughly +72%), a peak-to-trough correction of about 15% into a cycle low around mid-2025, then a modest recovery over the last 12 months. Rent has climbed steadily throughout — the more reliable performer.

03Growth & Yield (Narooma Proxy)

04Five-Year Price Projection

Projected values from the $1,150,000 assumed purchase price. Scenarios are model-based extrapolations of Narooma-proxy history — not forecasts or valuations.

The pure 5-year CAGR is anchored to the 2022 peak and understates likely forward growth. With the proxy market having bottomed around mid-2025 and turned upward (+2.35% over the last year), a central case of roughly $1.35M–$1.4M over five years is the most defensible read from a $1.15M entry — though note the entry itself is above current sold evidence (section 01) — and waterside Kianga stock has historically run ahead of the Narooma blend.

05Comparable Sales

Houses (3+ bed) sold within ~5 km over the last nine months (property records, priced sales only). Sold evidence is the strongest test of the $977,492 AVM.

20 Kianga Parade is a near-perfect comparable — same street, identical 3·2·2 configuration and 558 m² lot — at $939,000 in March 2026. The local 3-bed band runs $870k–$939k, bracketing just under the $977,492 AVM; larger waterside stock (Dawn Parade, Beachview, Williamson) clears $1.25M–$1.56M. Five further nearby sales (5 Woodbury Rd, 46 Hillcrest Ave, 16 Kianga Pde, 18 Lakeside Dr, 21 Dawn Pde) settled recently with prices not yet disclosed — worth re-checking before an offer.

06Short-Stay (Airbnb) Revenue Scenario

Modelled from AirROI data (trailing 12 months, Jun 2025 – May 2026, refreshed 2 July 2026 — all figures AUD) and comparable 3-bedroom listings. AirROI's address-level estimate for a 3-bed / 2-bath / 6-guest home at this location is ~$69,400 gross a year at a $432 ADR and 45% occupancy (p25 ~$34k · p75 ~$78k · p90 ~$106k) — notably stronger than an equivalent Narooma in-town home, reflecting Kianga's beachside strip. Demand peaks in January and is softest in May, with an average stay of ~4.6 nights.

Net figures assume short-stay operating costs of ~40–48% of gross — materially heavier than a long-term lease. About 37% of local listings are professionally managed (15–20% management fee); cleaning fees average ~$345 per turnover (median $378); add platform fees, higher utilities/wifi, short-stay insurance, linen/consumables and faster wear. A top-decile operator (p90) can gross ~$106,000 at 69%+ occupancy. A one-off furnishing fit-out of ~$25–40k for a 3-bed is not included above.

07Rates, Revenue & Seasonality

Market-wide AirROI benchmarks for all listings in the Narooma market, which covers Kianga (TTM Jun 2025 – May 2026, AUD). Headline averages: $377 ADR, 33.9% occupancy, $127 RevPAR; average booking lead time ~79 days. Listings that earned revenue averaged ~$34,000 for the year (median ~$27,600); across all 183 tracked listings (including owner-blocked homes) the average was ~$21,200. Performance splits widely by tier and by season.

Market-average ADR is $377; a well-run 3-bedroom targets the upper tiers — the market's top 3-bed comps achieved $721 and $768 a night. The green bar marks the Top-25% band ($456), the realistic target for a quality-managed listing.

Revenue swings hard with the calendar. The single strongest month (January) reaches ~$6,401 at 51% occupancy; the weakest (May) drops to ~$2,490 at 22%. These are market-wide averages across all listings — an actively-managed 3-bed runs materially higher in peak, around ~69% occupancy in January at a 45% annual average (modelled in the section 09 calculator). Building a cash buffer from the peak months to carry the off-season is essential.

The spread between top and bottom performers is enormous — a ~5× revenue gap driven by presentation, pricing strategy and availability. RevPAR (rate × realised occupancy) is the cleanest single efficiency measure: the market median is $103, top-quartile is $175+. (Tier annual figures compound monthly percentiles, so treat them as indicative bands, not per-listing forecasts.)

08Supply, Hosts & Market

Kianga sits inside AirROI's Narooma short-stay market — a boutique market of ~113 currently active listings (183 tracked over the year, ~104 active in any given month), ~97% entire homes, with supply up roughly 8% year-on-year (103 → 111 monthly actives). By property type it skews to apartments/units (48%) with houses at ~33% plus cottages, cabins and guesthouses; by size, 2-bed (41%) and 3-bed (27%) dominate, with 41% offering 3+ bedrooms and 14% at 4+ bedrooms. About 37% of listings are professionally managed.

The top listings show two routes to strong revenue: high ADR with moderate occupancy (12 Bluewater at $734 × 36%), or lower ADR with very high occupancy (Farm Stay Cottage at $271 × 95%). Both clear ~$98k+, and the best 3-beds are close behind — Buena Vista 62 ($112.6k) and the Luxury Apartment ($107.4k).

One operator — Whale Coast — dominates, running 71 of the 183 tracked listings at a $413 ADR but only ~15% occupancy. The remainder is a long tail of individual owner-hosts, several rating 4.9+ with far stronger occupancy. A new entrant competes mainly on presentation and pricing against a single professional incumbent whose portfolio under-fills.

*Average revenue per active listing-month. Narooma sits below the Jervis Bay / Shoalhaven markets (the Shoalhaven LGA tracks ~1,238 listings in total) — and the gap is now clearly rate, not just availability: occupancy is broadly in line with the neighbours, but Narooma's $377 ADR is 30–55% below Huskisson, Vincentia, Hyams Beach and Callala Beach. Owner-blocked holiday homes still drag the blended average further. An actively-let 3-bed at Kianga (modelled at ~$69k in section 06) would sit well above the blended market average.

09Airbnb Revenue Calculator

Interactive model — adjust occupancy and nightly rate to test returns for this property. Benchmarks come from AirROI's address-level estimate for a 3-bedroom at 57 Kianga Parade (refreshed 2 July 2026, AUD). Seasonality follows AirROI's monthly revenue distribution for this address — January runs ≈ 69% at the default 45% annual average. The loan defaults to 100% borrowing against the $1,150,000 assumed purchase price (no down payment) at 6.5% p.a. over 30 years; zero the loan amount for a cash-purchase view. The Target Revenue card works backwards from an acceptable monthly shortfall (default $1,000/mo out-of-pocket) to the Airbnb revenue the property must earn.

The loan repayment, annual profit and cash-on-cash now update live from the loan inputs (principal & interest). The model remains indicative — for a finance decision use section 06's net figures and the credit team's serviceability assessment; short-stay income is typically discounted or excluded for servicing.

10Short-Stay vs Long-Term & Regulation

The read: the strategy gap is wider here than in-town Narooma. Long-term leasing is weak (~2.8% gross, ~$21k net) while the short-stay central case nets ~$36–42k — roughly $15–20k a year ahead of a lease — because Kianga's beachside strip commands a $432 estimated ADR. The nearest comparable listings (Yabbarra Sands, 4 Dawn Parade) already operate at or above the central case. A lightly-run listing still underperforms; the property only makes income sense actively managed.

11Data Confidence & Watch-Points

• Kianga transacts too few houses for suburb-level statistics — sections 02–04 use adjoining Narooma houses as the proxy market. Treat trend metrics as indicative; Kianga's waterside strip has historically run ahead of the blend.
• Confidence is rated Medium-Low overall. The value evidence itself is unusually clean — 20 Kianga Parade (identical 3·2·2, 558 m², same street) sold for $939,000 in March 2026 against the $977,492 AVM — which is exactly why the $1.15M assumption needs premium attributes to justify.
• Five recent nearby sales have undisclosed prices (incl. 16 Kianga Parade next to the comp) — re-check disclosures before an offer; they could move the band.
• Financing figures anchor on an assumed purchase price of $1,150,000 — ~18% above the $977,492 AVM and ~22% above the same-street sale ($939,000). At that price a valuation shortfall is a live risk; a lender valuation decides the real number.
• Coastal / lifestyle markets carry higher amplitude through cycles — strong on the way up, more exposed on the way down — relative to metro benchmarks.
• All AirROI short-stay figures are AUD, pulled direct from the AirROI API on 2 July 2026, and assume a 3bd/2ba/6-guest actively-let, well-presented listing. Kianga skews holiday-house, so blended market averages understate an active operator.
• Short-stay income is typically assessed conservatively (or excluded) by the credit team for serviceability; a signed long-term lease or agent rental appraisal is the stronger evidence for a finance submission.